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20mph speed limits have no effect
Richy320
post Wed, 16 Nov 2022 - 15:29
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Effect of 20mph limits in Belfast

I'd like to say I'm surprised. I bet they'll never increase them back to 30 or 40 though!


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post Wed, 16 Nov 2022 - 15:29
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The Rookie
post Thu, 17 Nov 2022 - 06:18
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Link to the report in question.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK584570/
Big difference in results for Belfast and Edinburgh is 'glossed over' (totally ignored) in the news article which seems so out of kilter to the actual conclusions as to be 'poorly written' if not outright biased. It may well have been written intended for just the Irish/Belfast audience but none the less distorts the report to braking point and is of course syndicated all over the UK.

From the conclusion
QUOTE
Results: Collisions and casualties – the overall percentage reduction in casualty rates was 39% (the
overall percentage reduction in collision rates was 40%) in Edinburgh. The percentage reduction for each
level of severity was 23% for fatal casualties, 33% for serious casualties and 37% for minor casualties. In
Belfast there was a 2% reduction in casualties, reflecting differences in the size, reach and implementation
of the two schemes.

A 39% reduction in casualty rates (Edinburgh), taking the report at face value, does seem to be more than 'little impact' to me - just saying.

This post has been edited by The Rookie: Thu, 17 Nov 2022 - 07:48


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andy_foster
post Thu, 17 Nov 2022 - 07:14
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QUOTE (The Rookie @ Thu, 17 Nov 2022 - 06:18) *
Big difference in results for Belfast and Edinburgh is 'glossed over' (totally ignored) in the news article which seems so out of kilter to the actual conclusions as to be 'poorly written' if not outright biased. It may well have been written intended for just the Irish/Belfast audience but none the less distorts the report to braking point and is of course syndicated all over the UK.


Perhaps you could stop correcting posters when they refer to using "breaks" to slow the car?


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The Rookie
post Thu, 17 Nov 2022 - 07:48
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Thanks for the correction.


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cp8759
post Thu, 17 Nov 2022 - 19:56
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QUOTE (andy_foster @ Thu, 17 Nov 2022 - 07:14) *
QUOTE (The Rookie @ Thu, 17 Nov 2022 - 06:18) *
Big difference in results for Belfast and Edinburgh is 'glossed over' (totally ignored) in the news article which seems so out of kilter to the actual conclusions as to be 'poorly written' if not outright biased. It may well have been written intended for just the Irish/Belfast audience but none the less distorts the report to braking point and is of course syndicated all over the UK.


Perhaps you could stop correcting posters when they refer to using "breaks" to slow the car?

I'd rather he did correct them, people should know how to spell and what words to use.


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Tarantula
post Fri, 18 Nov 2022 - 11:47
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Are they saying there was a decrease in traffic in Belfast but no decrease in casualties? So an increase in casualties per vehicle?
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roythebus
post Mon, 28 Nov 2022 - 16:26
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I'd question the casualty rate figures, especially those for fatal accidents. Conflated across the country that would show up in the national death rate figures which have remained fairly static at about 1800 a year for quite a while. No doubt figures for the last couple of years will show a marked drop due to covid lockdowns, but this report was for the period 2000-2018. A 23% reduction in the death rate over that period would I suggest mean an average reduction of 1.27777778 a year, hardly worth bothering about.

If it were 23% a year for 18 years, there would be no deaths at all by now.

This post has been edited by roythebus: Mon, 28 Nov 2022 - 16:27
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andy_foster
post Mon, 28 Nov 2022 - 19:39
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Maths doesn't seem to be your strong point.

If over 18 years the death rate has dropped 23% to 1800/year, the death rate at the start of the 18 years would have been ~2338. A drop of 538 deaths per year over 18 years is a fraction under 30 per year.

If the death rate dropped by 23% per year for 18 years, starting at 2338 deaths per year, the death rate would be a fraction over 21 per year at the end of the 18 years.


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mickR
post Mon, 28 Nov 2022 - 20:13
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no your wrong Andy the remaining 21 would have died of boredom working the maths out
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roythebus
post Tue, 29 Nov 2022 - 12:51
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Yep, maths ain't my strong point. But as the majority of road deaths are on NSL rural roads according to ONS figures, if the 20 speed limits account for any reduction, it's a very small number.
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The Rookie
post Tue, 29 Nov 2022 - 15:36
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QUOTE (roythebus @ Tue, 29 Nov 2022 - 12:51) *
Yep, maths ain't my strong point. But as the majority of road deaths are on NSL rural roads according to ONS figures, if the 20 speed limits account for any reduction, it's a very small number.

Yet more dodgy Maths...

ONS road deaths data for 2021
Built up areas 687
Non built up 695
Motorways 92


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There is no such thing as a law abiding motorist, just those who have been scammed and those yet to be scammed!

S172's
Rookies 1-0 Kent

Council PCN's
Rookies 1-0 Warwick
Rookies 1-0 Birmingham

PPC PCN's
Rookies 10-0 PPC's
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speedfighter23
post Wed, 30 Nov 2022 - 09:52
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of course they have an effect. more speeding tickets!


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Police Speeding Fines - Police 1 - speedfighter23 0
TFL traffic contraventions 0 - speedfighter23 2
Kensington and Chelsea 0 parking contraventions - speedfighter23 1
Brighton and Hove parking 0 - speedfighter23 1
Private PCN - Private Parking Solutions Limited 0 - speedfighter23 1

Tyre Puncture Pothole Claims:
0 Buckinghamshire Council - speedfighter23 1
0 TFL - speedfighter23 1

Result Pending:

1 Islington Council tyre puncture claim
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stamfordman
post Wed, 30 Nov 2022 - 11:09
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20mph limits are not just about safety. They bring significant change in rebalancing the built environment in favour of wellbeing.
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Tarantula
post Wed, 30 Nov 2022 - 11:55
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QUOTE (The Rookie @ Tue, 29 Nov 2022 - 15:36) *
QUOTE (roythebus @ Tue, 29 Nov 2022 - 12:51) *
Yep, maths ain't my strong point. But as the majority of road deaths are on NSL rural roads according to ONS figures, if the 20 speed limits account for any reduction, it's a very small number.

Yet more dodgy Maths...

ONS road deaths data for 2021
Built up areas 687
Non built up 695
Motorways 92


2021 was an abnormal year due to lock-downs.

For 2018, for example, 58% (1030 of 1784) were on rural roads (not necessarily, NSL).

The majority of the drop in fatalities occurred before 2010 since then the rates have been fairly constant both for pedestrians and vehicle occupants. Cyclists show a slow drop in fatalities over the 2010-2018 period.
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