20mph speed limits have no effect |
20mph speed limits have no effect |
Wed, 16 Nov 2022 - 15:29
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#1
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Member Group: Members Posts: 425 Joined: 4 Aug 2014 From: In the beautiful Chilterns Member No.: 72,309 |
Effect of 20mph limits in Belfast
I'd like to say I'm surprised. I bet they'll never increase them back to 30 or 40 though! -------------------- Speed does not kill. It's more to do with how you stop.
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Wed, 16 Nov 2022 - 15:29
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Thu, 17 Nov 2022 - 06:18
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#2
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Member Group: Members Posts: 56,198 Joined: 9 Sep 2003 From: Warwickshire Member No.: 317 |
Link to the report in question.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK584570/ Big difference in results for Belfast and Edinburgh is 'glossed over' (totally ignored) in the news article which seems so out of kilter to the actual conclusions as to be 'poorly written' if not outright biased. It may well have been written intended for just the Irish/Belfast audience but none the less distorts the report to braking point and is of course syndicated all over the UK. From the conclusion QUOTE Results: Collisions and casualties – the overall percentage reduction in casualty rates was 39% (the overall percentage reduction in collision rates was 40%) in Edinburgh. The percentage reduction for each level of severity was 23% for fatal casualties, 33% for serious casualties and 37% for minor casualties. In Belfast there was a 2% reduction in casualties, reflecting differences in the size, reach and implementation of the two schemes. A 39% reduction in casualty rates (Edinburgh), taking the report at face value, does seem to be more than 'little impact' to me - just saying. This post has been edited by The Rookie: Thu, 17 Nov 2022 - 07:48 -------------------- There is no such thing as a law abiding motorist, just those who have been scammed and those yet to be scammed!
S172's Rookies 1-0 Kent Council PCN's Rookies 1-0 Warwick Rookies 1-0 Birmingham PPC PCN's Rookies 10-0 PPC's |
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Thu, 17 Nov 2022 - 07:14
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#3
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Member Group: Life Member Posts: 24,213 Joined: 9 Sep 2004 From: Reading Member No.: 1,624 |
Big difference in results for Belfast and Edinburgh is 'glossed over' (totally ignored) in the news article which seems so out of kilter to the actual conclusions as to be 'poorly written' if not outright biased. It may well have been written intended for just the Irish/Belfast audience but none the less distorts the report to braking point and is of course syndicated all over the UK. Perhaps you could stop correcting posters when they refer to using "breaks" to slow the car? -------------------- Andy
Some people think that I make them feel stupid. To be fair, they deserve most of the credit. |
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Thu, 17 Nov 2022 - 07:48
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#4
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Member Group: Members Posts: 56,198 Joined: 9 Sep 2003 From: Warwickshire Member No.: 317 |
Thanks for the correction.
-------------------- There is no such thing as a law abiding motorist, just those who have been scammed and those yet to be scammed!
S172's Rookies 1-0 Kent Council PCN's Rookies 1-0 Warwick Rookies 1-0 Birmingham PPC PCN's Rookies 10-0 PPC's |
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Thu, 17 Nov 2022 - 19:56
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#5
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Member Group: Members Posts: 38,006 Joined: 3 Dec 2010 Member No.: 42,618 |
Big difference in results for Belfast and Edinburgh is 'glossed over' (totally ignored) in the news article which seems so out of kilter to the actual conclusions as to be 'poorly written' if not outright biased. It may well have been written intended for just the Irish/Belfast audience but none the less distorts the report to braking point and is of course syndicated all over the UK. Perhaps you could stop correcting posters when they refer to using "breaks" to slow the car? I'd rather he did correct them, people should know how to spell and what words to use. -------------------- If you would like assistance with a penalty charge notice, please post a thread on https://www.ftla.uk/index.php
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Fri, 18 Nov 2022 - 11:47
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#6
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Member Group: Members Posts: 488 Joined: 1 Jun 2021 Member No.: 112,875 |
Are they saying there was a decrease in traffic in Belfast but no decrease in casualties? So an increase in casualties per vehicle?
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Mon, 28 Nov 2022 - 16:26
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#7
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Member Group: Members Posts: 6,963 Joined: 19 Dec 2006 From: Near Calais Member No.: 9,683 |
I'd question the casualty rate figures, especially those for fatal accidents. Conflated across the country that would show up in the national death rate figures which have remained fairly static at about 1800 a year for quite a while. No doubt figures for the last couple of years will show a marked drop due to covid lockdowns, but this report was for the period 2000-2018. A 23% reduction in the death rate over that period would I suggest mean an average reduction of 1.27777778 a year, hardly worth bothering about.
If it were 23% a year for 18 years, there would be no deaths at all by now. This post has been edited by roythebus: Mon, 28 Nov 2022 - 16:27 |
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Mon, 28 Nov 2022 - 19:39
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#8
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Member Group: Life Member Posts: 24,213 Joined: 9 Sep 2004 From: Reading Member No.: 1,624 |
Maths doesn't seem to be your strong point.
If over 18 years the death rate has dropped 23% to 1800/year, the death rate at the start of the 18 years would have been ~2338. A drop of 538 deaths per year over 18 years is a fraction under 30 per year. If the death rate dropped by 23% per year for 18 years, starting at 2338 deaths per year, the death rate would be a fraction over 21 per year at the end of the 18 years. -------------------- Andy
Some people think that I make them feel stupid. To be fair, they deserve most of the credit. |
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Mon, 28 Nov 2022 - 20:13
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#9
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Member Group: Members Posts: 7,235 Joined: 5 Jan 2007 From: England Member No.: 9,919 |
no your wrong Andy the remaining 21 would have died of boredom working the maths out
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Tue, 29 Nov 2022 - 12:51
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#10
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Member Group: Members Posts: 6,963 Joined: 19 Dec 2006 From: Near Calais Member No.: 9,683 |
Yep, maths ain't my strong point. But as the majority of road deaths are on NSL rural roads according to ONS figures, if the 20 speed limits account for any reduction, it's a very small number.
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Tue, 29 Nov 2022 - 15:36
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#11
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Member Group: Members Posts: 56,198 Joined: 9 Sep 2003 From: Warwickshire Member No.: 317 |
Yep, maths ain't my strong point. But as the majority of road deaths are on NSL rural roads according to ONS figures, if the 20 speed limits account for any reduction, it's a very small number. Yet more dodgy Maths... ONS road deaths data for 2021 Built up areas 687 Non built up 695 Motorways 92 -------------------- There is no such thing as a law abiding motorist, just those who have been scammed and those yet to be scammed!
S172's Rookies 1-0 Kent Council PCN's Rookies 1-0 Warwick Rookies 1-0 Birmingham PPC PCN's Rookies 10-0 PPC's |
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Wed, 30 Nov 2022 - 09:52
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#12
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Member Group: Members Posts: 477 Joined: 29 Jul 2019 Member No.: 104,999 |
of course they have an effect. more speeding tickets!
-------------------- Police Speeding Fines - Police 1 - speedfighter23 0
TFL traffic contraventions 0 - speedfighter23 2 Kensington and Chelsea 0 parking contraventions - speedfighter23 1 Brighton and Hove parking 0 - speedfighter23 1 Private PCN - Private Parking Solutions Limited 0 - speedfighter23 1 Tyre Puncture Pothole Claims: 0 Buckinghamshire Council - speedfighter23 1 0 TFL - speedfighter23 1 Result Pending: 1 Islington Council tyre puncture claim |
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Wed, 30 Nov 2022 - 11:09
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#13
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Member Group: Members Posts: 23,582 Joined: 12 Feb 2013 From: London Member No.: 59,924 |
20mph limits are not just about safety. They bring significant change in rebalancing the built environment in favour of wellbeing.
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Wed, 30 Nov 2022 - 11:55
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#14
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Member Group: Members Posts: 488 Joined: 1 Jun 2021 Member No.: 112,875 |
Yep, maths ain't my strong point. But as the majority of road deaths are on NSL rural roads according to ONS figures, if the 20 speed limits account for any reduction, it's a very small number. Yet more dodgy Maths... ONS road deaths data for 2021 Built up areas 687 Non built up 695 Motorways 92 2021 was an abnormal year due to lock-downs. For 2018, for example, 58% (1030 of 1784) were on rural roads (not necessarily, NSL). The majority of the drop in fatalities occurred before 2010 since then the rates have been fairly constant both for pedestrians and vehicle occupants. Cyclists show a slow drop in fatalities over the 2010-2018 period. |
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Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: Thursday, 28th March 2024 - 16:50 |